The PERFECT Time To Buy Crypto For The Next 3 Years | Arthur Hayes

 if you were sitting on a pile of capital  today and you had to allocate it what  kind of capital allocation would you  follow  I would buy  all righty it's Friday and it's no  ordinary Friday here Atlanta this is one  of the biggest Friday shows we've ever  had this is a great show because I'm  going to be catching up with one of my  friends I haven't spoken to for a long  time in fact the last time I spoke to  him he completely obliterated Muriel  rabini in a debate around Bitcoin and if  you know Muriel rabini then you'll know  that whoever's coming on here today is a  big guest and he's got a lot to say for  himself so today's going to be an  unbelievable unbelievable show uh make  sure you stay tuned and make sure you  stay tuned till the end it's going to be  absolutely amazing  [Applause]  [Music]  get the [ __ ] out of bed [ __ ] go  get up  I'm gonna wake up try to wake up [ __ ]  get up  get up  foreign  [Applause]  [Music]  and even though today we're not  venturing with a normal panel like we  banter with everyone else I think you're  going to get a lot of banter here today  that in fact I guarantee you that today  just before we start here today just  want to remind you guys that our Friday  advances are brought to you by nordvpn  and I always say to you guys that  nordvpn is the VPN for people who are  interested in crypto and in fact if you  are in crypto and you're not using a VPN  you're in a suicide mission because not  only are you exposing your IP address to  hackers you can then track down your  accounts and hack your crypto and steal  your crypto but you're also exposing it  to all the D5 protocols and all the  exchanges and to be honest I don't want  people knowing what my IP address in my  computer is so if you want to protect  your crypto make sure you go to the link  below there's a link below in our show  click on the nordvpn uh click on the  nordvpn link and what you'll see is that  you can protect your crypto for as  little as three 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great event in Taipan  it was before covert and all the travel  restrictions and everything  life was good life was good we didn't  have to wear mastery  so how are you feeling how are you  feeling about the markets how are you  feeling about the global cycle I mean I  follow your Twitter account and I and I  catch Snippets of it but Keen to  understand from you how are you feeling  huh how are you bullish are you bearish  what's what's the sentiment like  I mean I think it's it's all kind of  coming together in terms of the  narratives around crypto  Global macro  you know this super cycle of sovereign  debt since world you know World War II  and we're kind of focused on since covet  or probably for the rest of this decade  decade is going to be  um very good for some people  very bad for some people but I think  we're going to reevaluate how the world  works over the next decade and you know  obviously there's some bad things  associated with that but I'm extremely  excited that hopefully we can get rid of  some of this dead weight that we've been  lugging around since we created these  you know artificial structures after  after the war  so you're saying in the next decade  we're going to really reevaluate and and  there's going to be a lot of changes  what do you think the main area of the  changes is going to be what do you think  we're going to be losing what do you  think is going to be changing  oh I think you know we're transitioning  from this let's say structural inflation  and I think there's a lot of people who  have said the same thing we've  underinvested in the energy that it  takes to run our our society right over  the past probably 10 years we've had  these illusions that we can transition  into this you know fossil fuel less or  free world and Records Pace when it took  us almost 100 years to get to where we  are today into the infrastructure that  was built to support this modern  ecosystem and I think we're seeing we're  quickly seeing the Folly of some of  these decisions that we've allowed our  politicians and our names of the people  to make for us on this  and you know it's not just a Russia  Ukraine thing but these are things that  have you know started kicking off as you  know we have almost eight billion people  on this planet and they all you know  some of them were very rich at the top  end but there's a lot of people in the  middle and the bottom we were like [ __ ]  this I want a car I want air  conditioning I want to eat beef and  chicken and protein I don't want to see  plants and you know into bugs is what  somebody would tell the to the poor to  eat so that we can save the planet [ __ ]  that I want I want to think you have  right so how do we deliver the same sort  of gains from you know the 1950s and 60s  till present for the developed world to  the you know other six billion people of  this world who want to have the Finer  Things in life too  so how do you how do you imagine that  the world will change I mean what are  the changes that you anticipate  I think that we are finally going to get  away from uh our belief that Central  bankers and these these you know artists  are called Central planners have any  clue about what Finance is about on a  global stage that we've built up all  this debt and there's various reasons  for it and we're going to see this  artifice hopefully not spectacularly  implode but it's going to change right  and so I think a relationship with Fiat  currencies uh maybe we ReDiscover what  it means to have a currency like gold  and Bitcoin that isn't someone else's  liability and whose use doesn't depend  on a particular system functioning and  so I think that's going to be extremely  exciting  yeah master I agree with you let's go  let's go from the big decade-long  picture to kind of like where we are  today and if I look at where we are  today we're in an environment where the  US is reporting eight percent inflation  give or take depending on on how you  look at it there is a a war in Russia  and Ukraine uh you've got midterm  elections coming up in in just a couple  of weeks how are you feeling about the  short-term cycle where do you think we  are in terms of the short-term side  effects in the short-term cycle not the  next decade but the next 12 months yeah  so I guess as everyone said knows we are  in we're a US dollar-led World right and  the dollars are becoming more expensive  if you can get them right and we're  seeing this suck of liquidity out from  everywhere else except for the United  States right and the FED not only  stimulated the most in terms of the  increase in money supply during covid  um I think he developed nation and  probably a new developing Nation as well  like you know something like 40 rise  over two years uh in the money supply  so they created a lot of this you know  inflation there's some other stuff that  they didn't create and now they're  trying to to walk it back the massive  era that they made coming out of covet  uh and that's sort of they're tightening  the other direction as quickly as they  can although I would argue that this  whole narrative that Jerome Powell is  Paul volcker is completely false he's  nothing like Paul Booker he's Jerome  Paul and he has his own constraints uh  and the FED is kind of in my view trying  to do the muddle through you know  they're not tightening too much to  actually you know crimp inflation right  uh I I haven't published this chart I  will hopefully soon  um ndr a research house uh for me  created uh the Taylor rule which if  you're not uh familiar with economics  it's a relationship between  um inflation and unemployment and where  short-term rates should be and it was  popularized starting in the mid 90s and  a lot of the FED targeted okay we want  to try to be like the terrible in the  90s they've worn off that covers um  since then but it sort of gives a  relationship in the US economy where are  they versus this framework that a lot of  these professional academics believe in  versus the actual rate and so if you  look at even today even at I don't know  was it three percent in there the the  short-term lower bound of the FED funds  rate they're like eight or ten percent  negative below where they should be so  they're not really fighting inflation  because  Jerome Powell and all the other fed  Governors know if they really wanted to  fight inflation and they restricted  money to supply to the degree to bring  down activity and to bring down  inflation they would completely destroy  the entire sovereign debt Market of the  world and so they're trying to do this  okay we're going to raise rates quickly  a little bit  and we're going to talk a big game about  how we're really serious about not being  in the 70s and all this stuff but at the  other end we don't want all the rich  people that we sort of made really  really rich over the last four years to  go broke because their debt-backed Fiat  assets essentially are marked to zero as  the you know the discount rate goes from  you know zero to probably we need to go  10 15 if they really were trying to be  like bulker uh so they claim  so okay you said a couple of things that  you said that the FED made a mistake by  printing the six trillion dollars that  they printed  why do you think it was such a mistake I  mean if it was such a mistake what other  options that they have given that  economies were were shut down and I mean  they had to keep the economy going  I mean The Government Can Keynesian  economics right the government can uh  fiscally spend it wasn't as if the rates  in the United States the 10-year rate  was like oh no two percent or something  like that uh before March 2020 when when  cobot final hit wasn't as as if the US  government couldn't Finance itself and  it needed to have the help of the  Federal Reserve to basically print the  money to buy their bonds right the US  government could afford to offer it set  out if anything people were flooding  into the U.S right to to to purchase US  dollars as they were afraid of what  would happen around the world in  financial markets what the FED did was  it nationalized the corporate bond  market in the US it said you know if  you're a particular classic issuer or or  above you're good because we don't want  all these companies to go out of  business now people say okay well this  pandemic it's it's unheard thing of  unheard thing ever since we've been  living in enclosed spaces as humans  we've had pandemics  um and so over the last Century we've  had multiple pandemics so to claim that  this is an unheard of scenario where a  lot of people die quickly because of  some communicable disease between humans  who live in cities  is done because that's just not how it  happened and so should that business  probably deserve to gone bankrupt at the  expense of inflation for the rest of the  world  you know you can make your choice on  that one but that's essentially what  they did and they printed all the money  to save up save these companies who  probably some of them shouldn't have  existed anymore  yeah I think I think I think I think I  agree with you on that on that analysis  let's move a little bit forward in terms  of what the fed's doing now we've had I  don't know if it's unprecedented but  it's certainly unprecedented  unprecedented in recent times but we've  had the FED increased interest rates by  75 basis points multiple times if I look  at the chart for what is expected at the  meeting of the 2nd of November which is  uh just before the motives five days  before the midterms there's a 98.2  percent chance of another 75 basis point  right hack so that feels like to me it  feels like the FED is being pretty  aggressive in their approach do you not  think that they're being aggressive do  you think they're being too easy no so I  hopefully I'll get the chance to write  this essay it's on my you know cutting  block and being worked on and I had a  thought one day like okay everyone says  that Powell is like volcker let me just  go back and just look at the math see  and see what he did what did Paul Walker  actually do so he came into the FED in  19 August of 1979 is when he became  chairman of the Fed and uh short-term  fed funds they weren't targeting it at  that point it was about 20 10 and a half  percent  in 19 by 1981 third quarter eight months  later he had doubled almost doubled the  FED funds rate to close to 20 percent  okay so Powell it's been eight months  now not only did Paul print all the  money Walker wasn't the chairman and  didn't print all the money and then came  in and then took it all away from  everybody you know obviously he was a  government employee in Treasury and all  sorts of other departments but he wasn't  the chairman of the FED he came in it  was at that level right Powell comes in  prints a bunch of prints a bunch of  money takes race down to zero oh I made  a mistake  okay I'm gonna be like volcker now and  he goes from zero percent in March of  2022 So today we're at three percent  right inflation at March of 2022 was  running at around eight percent so we  was just in that metric alone he was  eight percent below  um inflation today inflation's at  similar levels eight percent and he's  still four or five percent below  inflation whereas volcker was already  exceeding CPI in the first eight months  right so Paul is not being poker Powell  is Jerome Powell because if you look at  the situation of the the debt in the U.S  which from the late 70s and early 80s  versus today this Society was much less  levered in the late 70s and early 80s  than we are today you know debt to GDP  was about 30 in 1980 versus 130 today  um non-financial corporate debt was half  of what it was as a percentage of GDP  and the early 80s and late 70s versus 70  50 75 percent of GDP today so Paul is  existing in a completely different  ecosystem  and to add to that it you know everyone  says oh about Paul's a bond Trader he  understands the bond market and I  believe he does and if you do the math  and you take a bond that starts at zero  and then you move interest rates even a  little bit the price declines much more  than a bond that starts at a ten and a  half percent discount rate and doubles  and that's just the convexity and that's  why being at the zero bound is so so so  dangerous and the fed put themselves in  this position and now it's impossible  for them to get out of it without  completely destroying the whole  financial system of the American and  western-led uh modern society and that's  why he's muddling through he can't go  the full distance he can't be a Paul  Walker he can be Jerome Powell  Okay so  how would you score what Jerome Powell  is doing out of 10. if I mean if you  were to to rank what he was doing what  rank would you give him out of ten two  okay you can't play The Middle yeah okay  fine my view take choose a direction  right either it's okay we're gonna  double down on this very very low  interest rate to save our asses and  hopefully maybe there's some miracle in  how the US produces energy you know they  let people Frack some more they open up  you know offshore drilling somewhere us  and versus Net nuclear technology small  scale reactors and you know automobiles  that kind of thing and sort of the US  lowers its energy dependence and it  grows its way out of it  or are you saying you know what we're  going for a hard reset and we are going  to completely remove all the excess of  the last 34 years because we believe  that we're going to put the US in and  the right track going forward and  unbeknownst to I think the financial  planner at the time in the 1930s that's  kind of what the US did during the Great  Depression it suffered an extreme  deflation of asset prices  it had way too much stuff for what the  economy could actually handle that was a  very painful adjustment period but if  you think about how the U.S emerged out  of the Great Depression versus Europe we  said we're going to extend and pretend  um like not like we we don't have this  prop the same over capacity problem  the U.S had in 1950 to 1990 of being Top  Dog right and uh an expansionary economy  versus Europe has basically been the  [ __ ] boy to the U.S  um since they decided to destroy  themselves  um and you know in World War II so you  know take the pain grow out of it or  just keep going with it but the middle  not only do you piss off the rich people  the poor people still have inflation so  what are you really doing here you're  accomplishing nothing  so if Pyle carries on in his trajectory  and we get a 75 basis point right hack  now and probably you'll get a 50 to 75  basis point rate hike before the end of  the year and if you look at whether the  terminal fund rate is I think it's about  I think it's about 4.5 percent and to be  honest I don't really believe that  that's where it is I think that that's  where it is today I think that as we get  close the people realize that it's going  to go up to six seven and maybe even  eight percent but regardless of my  belief if pal continues on this  trajectory what happens  how does this play out this plays out so  you know and I've been doing some  reading of um just how the same problem  has been in existence since Bretton  Woods was envisioned which is  the US is a very domestically focused  politically place because  um it can feed itself it has enough fuel  and has two oceans between it so it  doesn't really worry about getting  evaded so people are pretty focused on  themselves and so the you know  isolationist versus internationalist  conflict of U.S politics has been ever  present and when you run the reserve  currency of the world you're your policy  almost needs to be International and not  local  whereas the fed's running very local  policies I want to have a strong dollar  um I I want to reduce inflation for the  voters who are really mad right now  because you know their negative wage  earnings since Biden has taken office  where it's just been below inflation  right uh and so they're pissed off  understandably I'm going to run a policy  that's going to hopefully help them  where the US is basically removing the  dollars from the world  that the world needs to operate the  global system is based on dollar  I need to have these dollars to trade  but Powell's saying no more dollars for  you uh we're gonna not not only it's not  even a price thing to take we're just  going to remove these dollars from from  the system and it's having obviously  disastrous impacts on a lot of these  economies and so that's why you see the  IMF and all these all these you know  World politicians like hey fed you need  to stop this this is the American LED  order you're supposed to provide us with  the dollar so we can trade under your  rules you're saying I have these other  priorities to these voters over here I  need to focus on my domestic situation  and so what's going to happen is where  this there's going to be something  that's going to blow up in the treasury  market I I imagine because that's the  market that is most exposed to this if  the fed's selling the treasury is  selling and the foreigners are selling  and so I think in the next three to six  months there'll be something  dysfunctional that's going to happen and  that's you know the key word market  dysfunction and then the FED rides to  the rescue and you know reverses courses  and turns the tasks back on  three to six months as soon as that  yeah  the the issue is when you go from zero  if you do the bond if you do the math  take a zero coupon Bond take a 10-year  zero coupon Bond plug in a zero percent  discount rate  um then plug in a one percent discount  rate look at the change in price versus  starting with a five percent discount  rate and then going to six percent and  you're gonna see the massive convexity  and the bond at the zero bound now uh  your short bonds as the central bank  right and so your short interest rates  interest rates rise the value of  people's bonds go down if everyone was  [ __ ] buying bonds when they were zero  percent if that negative yielding right  we had what 18 trillion dollars of  negative yielding debt at its peak and  sometime in like you know 2021 or 2020  whenever it was  at least you were buying a bond  guaranteeing to lose you money and only  a one to two percent rise in the bond  prices completely destroys your returns  and that's what we've seen this year  right Bloomberg total AG Bond index  globally down on 14 15 interest rates  have only gone up two or three points  and so it's just Madness  I saw this and I'm sure I'm sure you've  seen this I'm sure this is not used to  you but it was a tweet from Charlie  belillo and he said the 60 40 portfolio  of U.S stocks and bonds is not 21 in  2022 I mean that's almost unprecedented  maybe there's two three times two three  other times in in modern history that  we've had that  yeah and then I was actually reading a  I'm an investor in this ball hedge fund  and and he was writing this week he  called it the uh  the sharp world and basically his whole  thesis and he talks about this and I was  with every one of his letters  is that the the institutional and that's  why I call these people Muppets because  they just lose you money  um the institutional investors and their  60 40 portfolio and the sharp ratios and  their arithmetic returns that reset  every year at gen 1 because they get  paid bonuses on December 31st right is  structured in such a way  to give a intellectual fallacy that  having a zero or very low yielding Bond  paired with a [ __ ] ton of Leverage  somehow protects your portfolio in the  long run from from and lowers the  volatility and gets you out on the  efficient Frontier and we're seeing  that's complete [ __ ] because stocks  are down  bonds are down correlations are up  that's this deadly fee for three things  for 60 40. 60 40 is a [ __ ] piece of  [ __ ] and if you're in it you should get  out of it because you're going to be  guaranteed to lose money in this world  where all these things were unwinding  all this risk all this all these you  know constructs that don't exist in the  real world because they were just these  rules that people had to follow and this  is why the Pension funds blew up in the  UK and there's going to be other you  know similar type events because we have  accounting rules that essentially force  people to buy bonds at uneconomic levels  because no one else would buy this ship  who's bought why would you buy a bond  that's used zero percent  unless you had to because this is  capital Ratio or some accounting rule or  whatever it is right and so we created  this whole ecosystem because we need the  government say we're going to print all  this money we need to sell these bonds  so let's create an academic framework to  justify why somebody should buy this  stuff and stuff it throw all these you  know these money managers and who loses  it's the average person right because  the average person is invested in the  401K or whatever their pension fund is  or the national teacher they're the  firefighters or the police unions  everybody you know we're invested in  these things these are the people buying  this dog [ __ ] and they you know come  from some University have some degree  and you know they can you know do a lot  of cool math but it's just [ __ ] so  if you wouldn't be invested right now in  the 60 40 portfolio and I think I agree  with you that that I mean that's a very  traditional way of investing how would  you be allocating Capital right now if  you were sitting on a pile of capital  today and you had to allocate it what  kind of capital allocation would you  follow  I would buy  short-term U.S treasuries and wait  short-term U.S treasuries Being two-year  U.S treasuries uh you know zero to one  year treasury and yes  and get yourself three percent whatever  whatever the right yeah  whatever that is so you'd be sitting in  cash earning three to four percent what  would be your trigger point to start  deploying the fed's going to tell us  there's going to be we're gonna there's  gonna be some event right so March 2020  what was it it was a corporate bond  market froze right and my market broke  next morning fed emergency meeting oh  we're bailing out the entire corporate  bond market there'll be something  similar similar to how the guilt the UK  guilt market right it's three days took  three days yields rose on 100 basis  points in the third year and in in the  UK only took three three trading days  and the boa said oh no we're not selling  any more bonds oh yes we have 65 billion  pounds we're gonna buy over 13 weeks  um completely scratched everything  right so we're gonna have an event like  that and it's gonna be entirely obvious  and then risk is going to go like that  and then he gets hit back on the bus  so what you think is the best trade  before that is to accumulate as much  cash as you possibly can still in the  cash make sure that you've got access to  the cash in whatever interest rate you  get whether it's one two three four five  percent earn that interest and then just  wait for the market to break and when  the market breaks you'll know on the day  that the Market's breaking that the  Market's breaking and that you know just  wait for the announcement of the FED  meeting with the emergency meeting and  then deploy all your Capital just before  that  or after it doesn't you don't need to  try to time it right you know did you  did you need to be you know was it March  23rd whatever the date was when the feds  you know bailed out the corporate bond  market did you need to bottom tick the s  p and the NASDAQ 100 no let them tell  you about all the new fancy acronyms are  going to roll out to print money and  then you just start what did the I  forgot who said it it was some JP Morgan  senior exec he said the reason why you  buy corporate bonds right now is because  you're co-investing with the FED  co-invest with the FED buy what they're  going to buy uh and if they're buying a  particular type of bond you buy that if  they're buying a particular if they're  buying ETFs now you buy that it's just  like in Japan right the boj buys Nick  atfs you buy Nick atfs right  don't don't confuse it and then  obviously there's a crypto angle but if  you're just saying in a traditional  non-cryptosphere that that's how I would  approach it  okay how concerned are you about what's  happening with International currencies  So like  um specifically let's look at the  Japanese Yen for example so I've got  this chart over here uh the reason I  want to talk about this one was this is  the point where the Japanese Central  Bank intervened you see we had a little  bit of a little period of calm off that  and then well look where we are today  we're way above that point we had the  same thing happen in the UK the UK I  think Got Away quite easily where you  know they had a little bit of a mess up  they recovered and now we're kind of  back at these kind of levels How  concerned are you about the strong data  and these high interest rates destroying  other currencies  they will you know the reason why the  Japanese gen is being destroyed is  because  you know crew design and you know the  Japanese establishing baking  establishment is committed to running a  policy that is vastly Divergent from the  US dollar  and so if you're interest rate is 25  basis points on your 10-year yield and  the U.S dollar in the U.S treasury is at  four well then guess what your currency  is going to depreciate and you could  either allow the rate to rise  and that will you know again will come  back down right it's it's a simple thing  but why can't you allow the rate to back  to rise well and I've written I wrote  about this as well you have all of these  you know Structured Products that were  essentially people selling wall  people selling rates to pick up some  yield because they couldn't earn  anything because of zero interest rate  policy right so if you're all just  sitting in the banking system all this  and at the zero percent balance which is  the most convex point in in the curve  and we're gonna go from 25 base points  to 50 basis points you'll probably  bankrupt the entire  um Japanese banking system that's  exactly why that's why it can't happen  until maybe the end's at 200 and then  they can make they have to make a choice  who who pays for the loss it's a  political decision right it's a  political allocation of the losses  and so that's where we're not there yet  you know they're going to keep going oh  25 basis points yep inflation nope we  you know I think karuda came out  recently over the weekend I know we're  we're gonna go back down and we don't  have a wage price spiral we need  inflation in Japan  all right you want 200 yen I I do I'm  going to Tokyo I'm I'm gonna go I'm  going to uh I'm gonna eat some some  great half off right and then this  Phantom six months so I mean  I heard the British tourists in the  United States aren't smiling anymore in  fact I've heard some of them are  struggling to pay for their flights back  after what happened with the uh with the  with the fall of the pound they were  complaining that their 30 pound  breakfast so now costing them 50 pounds  or or whatever it is it's I mean that's  that's pretty much that's pretty much  how they feel  um I mean it's easy for you to say  because you're sitting in the US and you  know you're a dollar denominator but  we're living in in Africa and unless  you're earning you know as you as you  said in the beginning  there are a couple hundred million  people that live in the U.S but the  problem is that there's six billion  people that live in countries which are  not the U.S and not using U.S uh dollars  and for them life is becoming more and  more expensive you know so you know I  get that people are complaining in in  the U.S about inflation but when I look  here in Africa you know you get people  that live on 25 30 a month and you're  talking about you know inflating them  even more because of a strong dollar  because a lot of what we do here is  imported so I think there's a there's a  bit of a misbalanced there  yeah and you know this is not a this has  been a story of human civilization right  what what have humans done in the face  of inflation and government financial  repression previous to bitcoin the  Buckle right and it's we've been we've  put gold into our culture right you get  married in certain countries you get a  dowry and gold right you know I live I  live most of my life in in Asia right  you go down the street in Singapore or  Hong Kong massive gold shops biggest  watch Market in the world Hong Kong and  Singapore obviously there's a China  angle but  people who are not born and bred in this  safe coddled Western environment are  used to government stealing their money  in more obvious ways and they steal  their money in the US and other places  um so they're like okay gold gold has  traditionally been a way for you to  protect your family as well and you'll  have it in jewelry  um maybe you'll have it in in bars or  tails or whatever the different you know  denomination is now that's a great thing  that people have this ability to opt out  of the system but the problem with gold  is in the digital economy is like how do  you actually use it in you know in a  useful way because once you digitize or  make it a sort of derivative then it's  no longer gold it's just another  liability in the banking system  confiscated just like anything else and  then you've got a Content you've got oh  you also got cancer party risk and  everything else  um I mean I think you testing it so  let's let's actually maybe pivot towards  crypto uh Bitcoin  is Bitcoin gold 2.0 is it do you think  that people are now going to escape  their currency depreciations people that  live in in the UK in Europe in Africa  and everywhere else maybe even in Japan  are they going to escape currency  depreciations and if they are are they  going to escape and put their money into  US dollars or are they going to put  their money into gold or they're going  to put their money into Bitcoin do you  think that this may be the Bitcoin error  this may be the big turning point where  Bitcoin actually becomes this Safe Haven  like gold was  well I think the I think it's the in  theory yes that all these things point  to yeah Bitcoin the technology Works in  practice  um most people try to get out too late  right yeah it's kind of like the the  gates are already closed and then you  realize you need Bitcoin it's like the  Russian oligarchs who thought they were  rich and then their whole country got  sanctioned and then all the nice things  they had no longer are theirs anymore  you're talking about Bitcoin was last  month not today right and so most people  will not get out of it there they will  get financially repressed they'll get  stuck into their systems Olivia small  minority who kind of understand this  this um this idea and  a small amount of money of a big pot I  think is going to flow into some of  these assets like gold Bitcoin and  um other things that can be moved around  that are not someone else's liability  does that mean that Bitcoin can go up a  lot yes you know in a longer term sort  of risk on risk off in terms of uh  scenario in terms of if you have access  to your money or not but the the thing  that I worry about is if people don't  catch on to this narrative early enough  it's just too late because you're you're  waiting until the obvious signs of oh  now I get it when you're sitting there  and you're like I want to move my money  and I can't because it's in the banking  system there's a new rule can't move it  oh there's Bitcoin I make it makes sense  now oh that's why they were all talking  about this  it's already too late and so that's  that's what I worry about  so so I mean according to that you're  saying in this narrative with  depreciating and devaluing currencies  you're still early  you're still going because you could  still do stuff you can still it's not  like most places have erected  um capital and Border controls and all  that stood up so we can see it coming we  can see those pockets of examples of you  know how it could happen to you but  we're human right and we think it's that  that's everyone else's problem I'm good  I don't need to to do anything I've got  whatever I've got I'm comfortable with  that my bank would never do that to me  my government would never do that to me  my politician would never do that to me  um these Bitcoin people they're crazy  right until it happens and it happens  you know I mean again like I think that  we have an advantage that I've lived in  in Africa and I've lived in the U.S and  I've lived in multiple other places and  the one thing that I don't think U.S and  other developed Nations really really  understand is what happens when Things  Fall Apart because when Things Fall  Apart everything falls apart when  governments panic and government putting  controls that make it almost impossible  to trade so in South Africa we had and  we still have very stringent exchange  controls which says hey you're not  allowed to take more than x out of the  country and X is a very small number  you're just not allowed to take it out  it doesn't matter how much money you  have it cannot leave this country okay  so that's I mean that's one of the  controls I remember when Zimbabwe went  on how all the restrictions that you  spoke about came in where people were  not allowed to buy and you know then the  black market then prices become much  much more expensive for US dollars but I  don't think that that that people get  that as you say until it's too late and  all these rules are imposed and it's  like  damn why didn't we buy that umbrella  before it started raining I guess that  that's probably the best analogy  exactly and I think from you know right  now we're very focused on dollar  liquidity dollar liquidity dollar  liquidity it's very important because  you know I broke I've theorized that  Bitcoin is dollar liquidity plus  technology and the technology is moving  value between humans without  um you know a government system and gold  which is a physical system it's a I'm  going to get on you know walk my ass and  walk my goal around right or put it in  some sort of vehicle or whatever right  so bitcoin's another system of how to  move value between people and technology  is impossible to Value until you need it  immensely and so we're not going to  Value it properly until it's actually  needed and it's going to be one of those  like asymptotic lines where Bitcoin that  one price and the next morning you wake  up and it's like a completely different  price and you either will you either had  it or you didn't have it  will Bitcoin replace gold  I mean I know we spoke about it and I  know we called Bitcoin you know we call  Bitcoin a gold 2.0  and I know but I also know that crypto  people are guilty of creating their own  narratives and drinking their own  Kool-Aid and but you know bitcoin's  narrative change multiple times first it  was cash then we realized that it's not  going to be cash then it was a store of  value sorry a non-correlated asset and  then we realized that it was actually  very very correlated and then it was a  hedge against inflation you know and  we've had these multiple narratives and  I think as crypto people we're guilty of  creating a narrative and then trying to  drive the marketing and it's good and  bad but you know the question is is do  you think that gold that Bitcoin will  really displace gold do you think do you  see a world in 10 20 years where people  look and say no God we don't need that  anymore what we do need is this digital  gold  so I think and this is an essay that I  want to write at some point is gold is  Sovereign Bank money and what I mean by  that is when Sovereign countries don't  trust each other they resort to Gold  it's a reason why all the central banks  still hold gold and the central events  are the net buying gold over the past  few years now when a central bank is  going to devalue their currency  to stimulate their economy they're going  to devalue against the gold that they  hold in their in their vaults and that's  why I own gold because I want to I want  to trade I want to invest with the FED  invest with the central banks the  central banks have golden balance sheets  it's you know the most widely known you  know inflation hedge or a hedge against  the system that humanity is ingrained in  our culture  they all hold it too I should hold some  too because when they devalue they're  going to devalue against gold that's  fine that's the Sovereign angle I've  covered that portion of my portfolio  then if I want to talk about the  people's money the people who aren't  governments  um who need to move value between  themselves and maybe a bunch of  balkanized financial assistance maybe  you have that U.S system any other  European system you have a Russian  system you have a Chinese system uh you  have all these different systems out  there because we're sort of breaking  apart the cohesion over the last uh of  the last 64 67 years then I want to have  the people's money because if I want to  you know trade with somebody in Beijing  I want to trade with somebody in uh in  South Africa and Cape Town if you want  to treat someone in New York or in  London I've got the people's money and  the people's money lets me transact with  other human beings and other machines  that are not sovereign entities so I  think it's a two-prong approach there's  valid reasons to own both and they're  completely different in their value  proposition and how they're how they'll  perform in certain situations  how about to show you on bitcoin  relative to your bullishness on ethereum  which one are you more bullish on  um I'm more bullish in the short term on  ethereum just from a structural point of  view of uh the removal of the about like  13 000 youth a day of issuance  um posts emerge but in terms of the  philosophical stance I think ethereum is  setting itself up for rude awakening  probably at the middle of the end of the  next full cycle and that's when we'll  sort of understand the value of the  centralization if the current situation  uh with how the proof of stake and the  validators have sort of set themselves  up doesn't really resolve itself and  it's too early to tell whether it's it's  going to or not  so before we actually go on to they're  just they're trying to conclude the  Bitcoin part uh in terms of buying  Bitcoin would you be buying Bitcoin now  because you said initially that you'd be  putting your money into cash and sitting  in cash at the at zero rates or whatever  the rates are at the current short term  rate  um would you be buying would you would  you start buying Bitcoin now and I think  what I'm alluding to is do you think  that there is long-term value in Bitcoin  and do you think that we're close enough  to the bottom to actually be buying it  so I think if you so I have I already  own Bitcoin I already own Bitcoin and  now it's like do I want more and I would  say I'm gonna wait because I'm gonna  trade it a bit I think there's going to  be an event in the fed's going to tell  us when okay the dollar liquidity  situation is going to reverse and then  it'll make a lot of sense now does that  mean that Bitcoin hasn't pre-traded then  and maybe it's 25 000 and it's not 20  000. maybe but I'm okay I'm running I'm  already invested so I don't care like  okay I missed out on uh on a bit of on a  bit of upside whatever I'm still  participating anyways in my portfolio if  you don't have Bitcoin and you know sort  of these non-us dollar liquidity  arguments resonate with you about  worrying about whether or not you're  gonna have access to your wealth or you  or the ways in which you're going to be  able to safeguard your wealth against  inflation or financial repression that  are going to be carefully constricted in  in the very near future then the time  was yesterday yes the price doesn't  matter  because when you need it you won't be  able to buy it and so then it's  irrelevant with the prices and so I  think that's sort of the situation where  people should you know take a look at  um where they are how do you separate  huge conviction in this space huge  conviction around the value of Bitcoin  um and having patience not to pull the  trigger in buying like on the one hand  it takes a lot of discipline to sit on  cash earning four percent when you're so  excited about what's happening in this  industry like so I know that you're  excited about what's happening in the  industry how do you reconcile that how  do you have that patience to not do  anything and setting cash and just wait  for the Fed  um I think it's just  I haven't been investing my own money  for for a while right I've done the I  lost a lot of money in Gold oh my God  the fed's gonna go bankrupt you know  this money print anything after the  global financial crisis is all really  [ __ ] up and you know went really long  goal at the top right because I didn't  everything's nuanced there's no nothing  goes up or down in a straight line uh  and so if you it pays to have a little  bit more of a nuanced approach to things  so that you get a better price at the  end of the day  and with you okay let's talk a little  bit about um ethereum so you're saying  you're bullish on ethereum in the short  term specifically you're bullish on  ethereum because of the supply cut  um just for those who haven't been  watching this is what would have  happened since the merge they would have  printed 401  829 new ethereum but they've only  printed  6272 ethereum and that's because they've  cut the supply of ethereum because to  support the proof of stake validators  versus the proof of proof of work miners  now theoretically at some point it will  become deflationary when the market  wakes up a bit and there's more movement  in the market it becomes deflationary  Bitcoin is still mildly inflationary but  but still inflationary  it has a relatively large staking reward  so anywhere between five and I don't  know top bonds ten twelve percent uh  Bitcoin doesn't really have a staking  reward  um do you think that so you're bullish  on that short term do you think that  that's going to bring in institutional  money  no I think institutional money is is  dead money until the cycle turns around  institutional money in size will be  there at E3 thousand eight four thousand  eight five thousand eight six thousand  eight seven thousand right institutional  money and I say this with love because I  used to be in this in the space  they're Muppets because we're paid to be  Muppets you're paid to learn these  [ __ ] you know economic theories that  don't correlate to how markets actually  work because at the end of the day  you're fiduciary you're there to manage  assets and not lose your job it's not a  hard job it doesn't require a lot of  intelligence you might stay late a few  nights at work and you work really hard  and blah blah blah but we're all human  intelligence while there might be  extremely intelligent people there  they're underutilizing their intellect  in this field  because  um it's just it's for Muppets uh and so  they are I don't want to lose my job you  lose your job when you invest in Bitcoin  at 30 000 and they go to 18. that's how  you lose your job you do not lose your  job if you invest at Bitcoin at 70 000  when everyone else is investing in  Bitcoin and then it goes down to 18 000  and everybody else's money with you too  are they gonna fire the entire financial  industry because everybody went along  Bitcoin at the same time and lost all  their money no but you will get fired as  the outlier who bought Bitcoin at the  bottom and it wasn't the bottom so  there's not the the incentives are not  aligned for an Institutional money  manager to actually try to bet their  conviction on I think Bitcoin uh is  bottom and which is why I don't think in  size they're going to be you know in the  market until it's clear that we're in an  upswing or a bull market and they're  going to pay the highs and then they're  going to sell at the lows as they always  do because that those are the incentives  but who's going to you know ignite the  market it's you know retail is people  who believe it's you know written  wealthy individuals trading their own  family money because they have a  different sort of incentive structure  but it won't be institutional money  managers who do this out but they'll  they'll bring it to the top though  that's for sure but I mean that that's a  great that's a great narrative when an  asset class is a 200 billion dollar  asset class but okay let's talk about  one trillion dollar asset class can  retail still move a one trillion dollar  asset class  absolutely the the last price is a bit  of a shimmer right because the last  price of the LA if I trade one Bitcoin  at 70 000 and that's the last price if  the next Bitcoin trades at 50 000 that's  the last price it doesn't tell us about  liquidity it doesn't tell us about any  of these other things so the metro in  and of itself is a flawed metric it's  like if I have a million Bitcoin and you  think you could sell a million Bitcoin  at seventy thousand a [ __ ] way you  could sell a million thousand but you  might say oh I'm so rich because I've  got Bitcoin at 70 000. my whole  portfolio is marked to this value no  it's not so I think even that metric in  and of itself if you don't fully  understand the what liquidity actually  is you'll you'll lead yourself into  these fallacies about the last price the  last price is irrelevant uh and so yes  retail investors can absolutely lead the  market to a last price driven high right  and so yeah it doesn't I don't I think I  don't think that's a that cannot happen  okay and I mean you said you're bullish  on each what makes you so bullish on  East that that chart you just you showed  us right and so if we if we believe in  and I think this narrative is going to  catch catch on even more so as if is the  decentralized computer the number one  the best one the most developers the  most uh decentrals applications  um the most Innovative thing is getting  developed that's going to help this web3  narrative that's going to help us own  our own assets on the internet and you  know all the different things that I'm  sure people on your show have talked  about this whole web 3 movement if is  the one and not only that it's now  mildly inflationary if not will be  deflationary and it's a sharp change  it's about the change and not about  the value it's because he went from ten  to one  right and that's that that's why it  doesn't matter what the absolute value  is and that's why I think people are  misunderstanding okay yeah that could  still be inflationary but I went from  ten to one I went down 90 that's all I  care about and so if we believe the  network is still going to be used and it  still is being used the apps still works  and people are still going to spend gas  and Eve maybe not spending as much as  they used to but they're not they're  certainly not covering up the 13 000  East every day that was being emitted  um and so that's where is that Supply  coming from if the network is still at  the same levels of activity even at  these lower level of activity and so I  think that's that's why I'm uh bullish  and of course it's going to take time  right you know I bought some call  options I'll probably be out of the  money on them you know went a bit too  early oh well uh but just like a having  in Bitcoin  you just gotta wait be patient what  about I mean you said we know that that  you know ofac uh sends a tornado cash  which is a decentralized protocol and  right now in in I looked at the the Mev  stats 53 of the validators on ethereum  are of fat compliant which means that  they're complying with the sanctions now  I don't want to talk about whether they  were right to sanction not right  sanction because that's a philosophical  discussion which I'm sure will get  resolved in due course in the legal  system but does it not worry you that  given the fact that 53 of these are now  offer compliant because they have to be  because I'm sure a lot of the validators  are in the U.S or affected by U.S  sanctions does it not worry you that now  if becomes censorable so there's a chart  there's the reds are the the blocks that  are validated by by offer compliant  validators and the blacks are the ones  that are not and it kind of feels now  that you know you can kind of see that  the majority of the validators are not  over compliant which means that actually  this decentralized blockchain  which is supposed to be uncensorable  actually is kind of censorable now and  is under the I'm not going to say  control of the governments but like it's  at the mercy of the governments does  that not worry you about this proof of  stake change because when you talk about  Bitcoin it's completely uncensorable you  know you can't be the same typical  Bitcoin but when you look at ethereum  well you know 53 are not over compliant  yeah that's what I think that on the one  hand as a near-term trade it actually I  think bolsters the trade because if you  think about it a lot of people have made  a lot of money investing in a particular  country's technology sector and I've  wrote an essay about this and I showed  the example of U.S tech companies and  Chinese tech companies your data goes to  the U.S and Chinese government  um depending on which whether you use  Facebook or or you know Baidu and wave  wall right and investors in these both  of these ecosystems early made a lot of  money  now you could philosophically have a dis  have a problem with the fact that you  know the so-called ethos of the internet  um standing up to the man and all that  kind of stuff  okay cool you can have that but at the  end of the day if you're an investor  caring about financial Returns the  financial returns were there and because  both of these systems were underpinning  their technology and supporting them you  did very very well being early in that  right so the similar sort of situation  could set yourself up today right  and you know take away the ofack and U.S  government stuff let's focus on binance  Smart chain right CT's blockchain and  I'm not digging CZ at all I think it's a  great thing what you built but it never  was decentralized BNB is what third or  fourth or fifth most valuable coin was  underpins this network nobody cares  people do not care about  decentralization because there hasn't  been a test of what it means to Value  decentralization just like when we  talked about the government you know  restricting access to your financial  assets until you see that test and so  you feel that pain you don't value it  and so no one values the centralization  and they won't value it until there's  some some very popular application  I don't know what it'll be it'll  probably be something that gets really  really popular in the next bill cycle  and they're going to do something that  pisses somebody off and then all of a  sudden we're going to focus back on this  oh that's a centralization thing oh it  means I can't probably maybe not use  this application possibly so there's  some uncertainty there  I think that could break the bill  marketing ethereum and I want to be out  of there before that happens so you  think that that's going to be the the  the the the Great Awakening that you  spoke about right yeah and then I mean  so are you bullish on other layer ones  are you watching any other layer ones  other than the ethereum  um I mean I guess my other layer one  thesis is a lot of them got crushed they  had a cycle right and so  from a earning or excess return over  Bitcoin or eth it would make sense to  allocate to one or more of these things  at the bottom and because they're going  to go up fast now I don't think any of  them haven't seen anything that comes  close to competing with ethereum and  it's not all based on transactions per  second or blah blah other stuff it's  like developer Talent you know ethereum  has a few thousand Developers  and the next blockchain they might have  a few hundred that's all that matters  the developers create this ecosystem  they build the applications right and if  you think about it every other layer one  has teams basically copying and pasting  everything that's been created on  ethereum first which is fine you you  know you know getting into Solana when  it's a few sets and out at 200 great  [ __ ] trade right but it's a little  bit less of a trade uh now at 30 is it  do they do they actually have something  to give to the market in the next cycle  what are they going to bring to the  market in the next cycle because if it's  just oh ethereum is slow it's processing  so many transactions gas keys are high  we're faster because of some you know  thing we wrote down on some math fancy  math on the piece of paper and our test  stats real fast  that works the first time doesn't work  the second time and so  um I don't know uh I'm not really you  know if the technical situation of the  price chart looks good then I would go  into some of them but from a you know  deep understanding I don't think any of  them can can beat ethereum as of yet  because they don't have the uh the Mind  share of of the developers well it's an  interesting interesting thesis  um  the two big narratives or the two big  Industries on ethereum right now are  nfts and D5 so I mean I think that if  you could say that you could argue that  that's driving the two driving the two  experiments unblocked the three  experiments on blockchain that have  worked uh one is Bitcoin and then I  think D5 and nfts are the other two  which have been very successful  defy  competitiveness in in the long term so  D5 really worked because we were  emitting tokens very very quickly we  were we were printing money out of thin  air we had a we had our own stimulus in  the time of stimulus so our stimulus was  we just minted tokens out of thin air we  made people feel rich more money came in  bought those tokens and we created this  this fake this fake Market but now D5  rates are struggling to keep up with fed  rates so I mean if you if you take you  know four percentage earning in the FED  I don't know where you can earn a  sustainable four percent on the  risk-adjusted basis uh that can compete  in in crypto question is like  how bullish are you on D5 given that  I'm extremely bullish on D5 but I'll  caveat that with there's only a few  different protocols that matter and  we're finding out what matters what is  it what I mean by what matters  as an individual or a machine or a  trading from what not if you are willing  to pay real money and I'll Define real  money as Bitcoin eth or stable coin it  basically says you're in you're involved  in this protocol not for earning more of  the same token  that's that uh but you're involved I'm  gonna pay I'm gonna pay real money to  use this service I'm going to pay money  to use you know so I'm going to pay  money to use GMX I'm gonna pay money to  use gydx right and I'm gonna have  trading volume and these Protocols are  going to generate real Revenue because  they offer service to people like  then they're going to do astronomically  well because they offer some of that  other people don't offer but if you're  just a metoo protocol who said I'm going  to tweak around the edges or I've got  better ponzynomics with my tokens  um than uh some of these other protocols  you're going to find it very very  difficult to attract any interest after  we've had this little cycle in terms of  the the Deep by summer and uh and  protocols not delivering people willing  to pay real money for their service  so what other protocols that that you  think are in the race for this  what what other particles that you think  are really in the race for the the real  uh the ones that survived and Will  Survive and continue to grow and where  people will actually pay good money to  use the protocols what do you think the  protocols are  so if you you know trading right so you  have Unison swap one inch balancer GMX  dydx  um I'm not sure if some of the other I  think DMX and uidx are probably the  biggest on the the derivative space you  got borrowing lending compound Ave  steel coin stuff you have curve right  um and then there's probably another the  the major things from a financial  Primitives perspective and you know  we'll probably have some more things  that are revolve around staking uh Ethan  yields and that kind of stuff I think  there's gonna be something that comes up  that becomes popular to address that  side of the market  um but yeah and it's a very it's very  few things just like in traditional  Finance how many exchanges are there  they're not very many right and they  make a lot of money  um but a lot of people try to imitate  them they might blow a bunch of money  but you know the the dominant exchanges  around the world are still the dominant  exchanges around the world and so I  think we're coming to that same  realization with with defy and yes we  kind of deleted ourselves because we got  a bunch of free tokens and that was a  great game because if you were able to  optimize your trading strategy to  generate an economic trading flow earn  tokens and sell your tokens for real  money before the price washed out great  training strategy but now the prices are  washed out why why why put back in after  they've inflated the television Supply  and all the tokens are already out there  you're like okay well where are the fees  where are the Traders how can I earn how  is this Dow earning anything and they're  like oh zero right it's a they're all  they'll Fade To Zero I mean I think  speaking about fading to zero let's talk  about nfts for a few minutes  um we had the boom we had I think the  best I think if you look at it at nft  time now most of the nft collections are  zero a few of them still have good value  and obviously the Blue Chip still  maintain their Blue Chip status but it  like hugely lower prices so I guess the  theory the thesis is that the ones that  went to zero probably deserve to be at  zero let's talk about the future of the  Blue Chips of the punks of the Apes I  mean of the I don't want to call crypto  dick bats I saw that you you had a dick  PAD as a one b I mean  so I mean what's the future for those  how does that play out  it's just a good feature for any art  right if you think about how many  artists have how many human artists have  there been in the 10 000 years of human  civilization probably millions of  artists right and yet if you go to a  museum there's only a few right and so  there's a uh I forgot who it was  and he made a very good point most art  is future trash right and so if you  think about  nft nft enabled digital art because  entities are not art and she's a data  construct nft enabled digital art  it's just future I don't even know what  we call trash in the digital space right  just like bits of data that aren't  stored anywhere whatever it doesn't  really matter  just like regular because there's and  now it's going to be even more acute in  this space because it's transparent  um the internet allows you to move  quicker we have this much more of a  not a Pareto distribution but the best  is going to be known as the best  Big Time versus if you're not even close  you're just going to be oblivious I mean  the difference is that you speak about  art but I mean to me you're not buying  any nfts because of the art you're not  buying a border because you lack the art  you're not buying a crypto dick but  because you lack of the art I mean I  know maybe some people like their dicks  I don't know but but I'm saying like  you're not buying it as large you're  buying it because you're part of a club  and there's supposed to be a whole lot  of utility and there's a board API club  and there's a meta verse and you can  participate and I mean it's a little bit  different that's it's the same thing  it's like I buy I'm a big collector I  get invited to the Met Gala I get to go  to the gagosian opening uh I get to go  to you know some fancy parties in London  Paris Tokyo Beijing New York right it's  the same thing I'm part of this  exclusive Club they give me a call they  sell me squiggles on a canvas for 10  million dollars right it's the same  thing  um it's just you know the younger  version of it and it's how they want to  express who is socially valuable in this  in this ecosystem versus the old way  that we've been doing for you know a few  thousand years of we have place we look  at some stuff on a wall these wealthy  patrons who help fund it and then we  sort of like you know have a party right  it's the same thing would you be buying  nfts now would you be buying like Punks  on apes and and and  mutant Apes would you be buying any of  that right now you think do you think  the value of those has come down to  anywhere near realistic  I have no idea I mean I own a son of the  major projects I think the real value is  in the platforms that enable the trading  right and so as you said the ethereum  um the most profitable Dows and guess if  you want to call it uh centralized  companies on an ethereum dap space are  all related to NFP trading so if you  want to get into some of those  that's great  by the picture shovels right and if you  like and if you like the dick butt I  don't want to tell you that you  shouldn't have a picture of your dick as  your pfp  Fred you heard that if you like the dick  butt you should get the picture of a  dick bro not not opinion  yeah listen my friend it's been  absolutely absolutely absolutely amazing  having you on dance and absolutely  absolutely absolutely amazing seeing you  again uh I hope to see you again in  person soon I I am coming to your side  of the world pretty soon it's helping  you when I yeah my friend good to see  you thank you for coming on Ben 10 much  love from the band FM thank you thank  you my friend so that's Arthur Hayes we  haven't seen him for a while but she's  what how much Alpha I told you I told  you this would be one of the highest  Alpha Miniatures if you've ever done and  it was exactly that and remember  remember because of that we need to  thank our sponsor our sponsors on  nordvpn they are the crypto VPN you can  thank our sponsors and you can get  yourself a deal that protects your  crypto for three dollars a month and as  I said before if you've survive the  whole bear market and you haven't lost  your crypto the last thing you want to  do is lose your crypto in a hack or lose  your crypto because some exchange  decides to lock your art because they  recognize your IP address etc etc so  support node VPN support the crypto VPN  and do it for three dollars a month and  support one of our sponsors and then  remember lastly we are running the bit  get and buy bit trading competition uh  there are links below as you can see uh  hit the links below that'll tell you  where people are ranking if you want to  participate there's over a hundred  thousand dollars up for grabs  um it's fine fine so join us um and yeah  extend a chance to win over a hundred  thousand dollars  and I think with that have a beautiful  weekend I will see you guys again on  Monday until then pray to all my friends